I came across an article discussing the future work in O&G and decided to dig into the BLS employment data for upstream O&G.
Below is a link to the brief analysis - a sobering view for all of us hoping for a better 2021.
In upstream only (E&P + OFS), we are currently down ~90,000 jobs YOY, with E&P showing an increase. Based on historical data and company announcements, an E&P RIF is looming for the data set.
With a business as usual case, including oil at $45 and gas at $2.5, Deloitte is projecting only 30% of the lost jobs recovered in 2021.
On a positive note, the industry has reached an efficiency peak of production per employee. The ratio increased significantly following the recent downturn. A combination of RIFs and the consolidation to core drilling are the main components of the results. Can it be sustained with technological advances and less personnel?
2020 has been a tough year for everyone in O&G. Recovery looks like it will be slow. Let's hope I am wrong.
Feel free to reach out with any questions about the data or better yet, something more interesting.
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